Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31d3…a677 tech 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,205 (+5%) realized +$1,227 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%274W / 29L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 58% +$871
other 23% +$182
finance 13% +$79
sports 5% +$58
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 5 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 25 +0.8% -8.8% 92% 12% -6.1%
all 303 +9.6% -0.9% 90% 18% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 18% -5.2%
10% -10.4% 10% -14.3%
15% -19.0% 8% -22.5%
20% -27.0% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.86 per $1 lost it wins $7.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized+$1,227
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses274 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)303 / 313
History coverage202d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? No 97¢ 99¢ $319 $327 +$8 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? No 97¢ 96¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $157 $159 +$2 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $157 $158 +$1 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Yes 98¢ 54¢ $39 $21 −$18 (-45%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? No 98¢ 50¢ $36 $19 −$18 (-48%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+19%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$5 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $581 +$11 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $194 +$6 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $206 +$2 +1%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $140-$150 on the final day of trading of Apr 18 $58 +$2 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $170? Apr 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$200 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $165? Apr 13 $23 +$1 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on April 8? Apr 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $245 on April 7? Apr 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on April 6? Apr 06 $8 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on April 6? Apr 06 $31 +$15 +47%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $165 on April 6? Apr 06 $81 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 on April 6? Apr 06 $116 +$13 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on April 6? Apr 06 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $215? Apr 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $235? Apr 04 $59 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $185? Apr 04 $103 −$43 -42%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $195? Apr 04 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $540? Apr 04 $106 +$9 +9%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Apr 03 $1,079 +$93 +9%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $420? Mar 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $610? Mar 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $600? Mar 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $190? Mar 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $700? Mar 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $350? Mar 14 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $120? Mar 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $250? Mar 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $245? Mar 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 9 above $290? Mar 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $210? Mar 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $470? Mar 14 $87 +$4 +5%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $720? Mar 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $190? Mar 14 $740 +$15 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on March 11? Mar 12 $95 +$4 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 11? Mar 11 $86 +$4 +4%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on March 9? Mar 10 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $225 on March 9? Mar 10 $106 +$5 +5%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on March 9? Mar 10 $233 +$10 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on March 9? Mar 09 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 9? Mar 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $80? Mar 06 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $245? Mar 06 $525 +$29 +6%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $120? Mar 06 $52 +$2 +5%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $380? Mar 06 $103 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $204 35m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $110 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $78 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $36 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $103 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $196 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $45 18h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $157 18h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $81 25h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $500 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 26h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $208 27h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $206 36h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $490 37h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 20? BUY Down 68¢ $7 57d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $140-$150 on the final day of trading of BUY No 96¢ $58 62d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $170? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 69d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $165? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 69d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 91¢ $9 69d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on April 8? BUY No 98¢ $5 70d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $245 on April 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 70d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on April 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $146 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.33 · official $1,069.33 (match) · 910 history records