Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31cf…d953
world · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage456d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $43 −$2 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Hegseth caught drinking before June? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$3
other 20% +$3
politics 8% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $36 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $37 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $25 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $43 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $42 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.1%
all 44 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records