Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31ca…6e94 other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,906 (+3%) realized +$2,227 · open +$679
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 58L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$9,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,188
7 days−$3,861
14 days−$3,861
30 days−$2,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$808
crypto 19% −$92
sports 8% +$3,688
politics 5% +$18
world 0% +$73
tech 0% −$56
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% -54.4%
≤30d 30 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% -22.1%
≤90d 84 +16.0% +4.9% 62% 62% +1.4%
all 151 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 46% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 46% -7.4%
10% -17.4% 42% -16.2%
15% -25.3% 33% -24.3%
20% -32.7% 25% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$293 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$9,422
Realized+$2,227
Unrealized+$679
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions9
Markets (closed)151 / 160
History coverage272d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $6,233 $6,676 +$443 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $911 $1,178 +$267 (+29%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,000 $994 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $201 $212 +$11 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $76 −$22 (-22%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$134 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,215 +$1,054 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,012 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$90 +161%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,533 +$1,765 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $61 +$161 +262%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,013 +$392 +39%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $612 +$317 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $71 +$129 +180%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1,304 +$150 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$55 +55%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $77 +$159 +207%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $51 +$77 +150%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $77 +$269 +350%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 May 16 $27 −$7 -27%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $51 +$75 +147%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $202 +$126 +62%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $304 +$232 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $806 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $536 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $522 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,114 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4,817 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,012 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $26 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $524 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $25 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $15 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $206 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $407 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $611 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 22d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 72¢ $508 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,422.07 · official $9,422.09 (match) · 379 history records