Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

31 0x31c9…986b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$99 (-50%) realized −$98 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-18.2%	-26.0%	33%	33%	-50.9%
≤30d	3	-18.2%	-26.0%	33%	33%	-50.9%
≤90d	3	-18.2%	-26.0%	33%	33%	-50.9%
all	3	-18.2%	-26.0%	33%	33%	-50.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.0%	33%	-50.9%
10%	-33.1%	33%	-55.6%
15%	-39.6%	33%	-59.9%
20%	-45.5%	33%	-63.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$49 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized−$98

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$68	$67	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$28	+$41	+145%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$49	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$69	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$28	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	12¢	$50	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.60 · official $67.53 (match) · 5 history records