trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 75% | 50% | +5.4% |
| all | 18 | +7.2% | -3.1% | 67% | 39% | -2.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.1% | 39% | -2.5% |
| 10% | -12.3% | 33% | -11.8% |
| 15% | -20.8% | 22% | -20.3% |
| 20% | -28.6% | 11% | -28.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | $224 | $227 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | Apr 16 | $168 | +$12 | +7% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | Apr 01 | $431 | +$99 | +23% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? | Apr 01 | $1,030 | +$173 | +17% |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | Mar 26 | $22 | −$11 | -49% |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Mar 16 | $954 | +$76 | +8% |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | Mar 12 | $623 | +$331 | +53% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 01 | $894 | −$271 | -30% |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | Mar 01 | $932 | −$39 | -4% |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? | Mar 01 | $20 | −$19 | -96% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | Feb 28 | $922 | +$29 | +3% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Feb 28 | $1,003 | −$81 | -8% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? | Feb 28 | $984 | +$19 | +2% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $1,146 | −$161 | -14% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Feb 28 | $1,127 | +$19 | +2% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $531 | +$596 | +112% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | Feb 07 | $307 | +$76 | +25% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | Jan 20 | $50 | +$18 | +36% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? | Jan 11 | $9 | +$4 | +42% |