Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31c8…a673
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage479d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $64 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $106 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $29 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $14 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 −$4 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $181 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $320 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $376 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $3 +$4 +120%
Will "Hacks" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards? Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Feb 23 $9 +$1 +9%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Feb 22 $12 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% −$20
other 8% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$4
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $10 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $19 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $29 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $29 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $25 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 33 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -10.2%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.8%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.47 · official $31.47 (match) · 124 history records