Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c6…637d crypto 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%140W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -7.4% -16.3% 73% 56% -13.6%
≤30d 198 -7.7% -16.5% 69% 57% -15.5%
≤90d 216 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 54% -16.2%
all 216 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 54% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 54% -16.2%
10% -25.3% 27% -24.2%
15% -32.5% 14% -31.6%
20% -39.1% 10% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses140 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$22 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records