Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31c1…e390
crypto · 260 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses112 / 147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day135.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 42¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 53¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$5
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 37% -10.2%
≤30d 259 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 37% -10.3%
≤90d 259 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 37% -10.3%
all 259 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover135.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 37% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 29% -18.9%
15% -34.6% 20% -26.7%
20% -41.0% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.47 · official $4.33 (match) · 1153 history records