Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c0…91f1 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,006 (-8%) realized +$136 · open −$1,142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$379
7 days−$381
14 days−$670
30 days−$1,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -73.7% -76.2% 0% 0% -44.3%
≤30d 40 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -19.8%
≤90d 40 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -19.8%
all 40 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -19.8%
10% -25.4% 50% -27.4%
15% -32.6% 48% -34.5%
20% -39.2% 42% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$251 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$1,142
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage28d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 46¢ 0¢ $600 $1 −$599 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 44¢ 0¢ $543 $1 −$543 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $772 −$162 -21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $220 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $556 −$547 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $344 +$213 +62%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $229 +$115 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $176 +$54 +31%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $540 −$366 -68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $299 +$242 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $829 −$478 -58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $205 +$113 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$218 +72%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $292 +$216 +74%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $381 −$377 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $304 +$273 +90%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $564 +$420 +74%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $294 +$272 +92%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $503 −$497 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $482 +$314 +65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $146 +$108 +74%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $68 +$31 +46%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $226 +$87 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $426 +$308 +72%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$112 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $220 +$380 +172%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $119 −$36 -31%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $3 +$4 +114%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $80 −$77 -96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $422 −$220 -52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $245 −$241 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $182 −$180 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $178 +$203 +114%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $89 +$90 +101%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $610 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 40¢ $609 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $772 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 38¢ $299 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $253 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $220 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $556 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $557 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $344 7d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $344 7d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 66¢ $229 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 98¢ $229 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 74¢ $176 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 15¢ $174 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $540 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $541 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $484 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $289 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $299 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $345 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $318 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $522 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $205 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $304 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $508 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 57¢ $292 7d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 42¢ $203 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 61¢ $381 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $304 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $1.27 (match) · 78 history records