Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31be…7397 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (240 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,565 (+3%) realized +$8,565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate72%26W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$8,923per market
Trades / day240.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,038
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (240 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 72% 11% -7.0%
≤30d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 72% 11% -7.0%
≤90d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 72% 11% -7.0%
all 36 -14.9% -23.0% 72% 11% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover240.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 11% -7.0%
10% -30.4% 11% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -37.1% 8% -24.0%
20% -43.3% 8% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$19,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$76 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.95 per $1 lost it wins $12.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8,923
Trades / day240.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $4,166 +$85 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $108 +$114 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $91 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $122 −$117 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $208 +$208 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $732 +$183 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $18,323 +$310 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $178 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $9,762 +$199 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $19,400 +$600 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $492 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $68 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $6,873 +$37 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $1,560 +$2,738 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $12,660 +$258 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $19,600 +$400 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $11,111 +$227 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $18,986 +$387 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $19,796 +$404 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $440 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $423 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $306 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,225 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $970 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $419 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 981 history records