Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31bb…3621 crypto 607 markets active 4d ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-5%) realized −$226 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate77%467W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$47
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$374
sports 6% −$123
other 4% +$101
tech 3% −$5
finance 1% +$6
weather 1% −$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 59% -12.5%
≤30d 182 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 53% -20.6%
≤90d 568 -4.3% -13.4% 78% 21% -17.3%
all 605 -4.6% -13.7% 77% 21% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 21% -17.3%
10% -21.9% 16% -25.2%
15% -29.5% 14% -32.4%
20% -36.4% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses467 / 138
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)605 / 607
History coverage131d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 63¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? No 92¢ 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$9 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$12 +743%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 31¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $1.51 (match) · 1587 history records