Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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31 0x31b9…ef61 sports 802 markets active 3d ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%414W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$1,108
30 days−$890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.4% -20.8% 44% 44% -23.3%
≤30d 528 -50.3% -55.0% 28% 28% -58.0%
≤90d 784 -4.9% -14.0% 51% 51% -12.7%
all 795 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 52% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 52% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 51% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 50% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 45% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses414 / 381
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)795 / 802
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 +$2 +92%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $2 +$2 +95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 +$2 +99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 +$5 +148%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 +$5 +173%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2 +$2 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $2 +$3 +137%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $3 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $1 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $2 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $1 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $1 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $1 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $1 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $1 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $1 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $1 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $1 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $1 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 53¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $1 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $1 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $1 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $1 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.54 · official $17.54 (match) · 3500 history records