trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 28 | +7.5% | -2.8% | 68% | 11% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.8% | 11% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -12.1% | 11% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -20.6% | 7% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -28.4% | 7% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $154 | $154 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 0°C or below on March 27? | Mar 27 | $169 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 27 | $627 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 25 | $622 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | Mar 20 | $469 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 19 | $710 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 13 | $337 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on March 13 | Mar 13 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 10 | $369 | $0 | -0% |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 09 | $395 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 06 | $390 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Mar 02 | $1 | $0 | +33% |
| Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in February 2026? | Mar 01 | $79 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? | Mar 01 | $132 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 28? | Feb 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Feb 26 | $272 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on February | Feb 20 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C on February 2? | Feb 20 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on February | Feb 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | Feb 20 | $44 | +$54 | +122% |
| Rockets vs. Pacers | Feb 20 | $73 | +$38 | +52% |
| Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Feb 01 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Feb 01 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App S | Jan 22 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on | Jan 22 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025? | Jan 15 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 61°F or below on January 9? | Jan 15 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Starmer out in 2025? | Jan 15 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 10? | Jan 15 | $29 | $0 | +0% |