Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x31b7…b8e4 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+2%) realized +$240 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%64W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days−$118
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$3
other 10% +$31
politics 2% +$189
crypto 2% +$3
world 1% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +70.4% +54.2% 83% 67% -3.1%
≤30d 94 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 34% -9.9%
≤90d 110 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 38% -8.4%
all 110 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 38% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 38% -8.4%
10% -16.0% 25% -17.1%
15% -24.1% 22% -25.2%
20% -31.6% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$42 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses64 / 46
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage43d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage FlyQuest 94¢ 100¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $107 +$28 +26%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $114 +$17 +15%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 +$422 +467%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $422 −$420 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $179 +$21 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $671 −$275 -41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $289 +$16 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $275 +$12 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $38 −$11 -29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $309 +$19 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $198 −$33 -17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $412 +$12 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $384 +$8 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $294 +$2 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $225 +$61 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,036 +$137 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $166 +$6 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $366 +$47 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $132 −$4 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$13 -20%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $285 −$38 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $126 −$37 -29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $332 +$149 +45%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $191 −$102 -54%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $154 −$46 -30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $785 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 94¢ $57 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 90¢ $62 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 90¢ $24 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 88¢ $180 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 82¢ $7 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 85¢ $82 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 85¢ $3 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 82¢ $75 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 80¢ $80 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 84¢ $5 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 84¢ $3 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 84¢ $67 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 84¢ $3 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 90¢ $32 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 83¢ $5 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 83¢ $1 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 74¢ $101 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 32¢ $64 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 23¢ $47 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 64¢ $127 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 73¢ $146 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 75¢ $150 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 69¢ $51 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 68¢ $40 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 68¢ $1 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 68¢ $27 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 65¢ $65 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 69¢ $1 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 69¢ $17 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 68¢ $68 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.98 · official $59.98 (match) · 814 history records