Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b6…9ecf crypto 621 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (288 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,172 (-12%) realized −$2,172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%318W / 434L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day287.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (288 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -26.8% -33.8% 36% 36% -39.9%
≤30d 752 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 42% -30.6%
≤90d 752 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 42% -30.6%
all 752 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 42% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover287.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 42% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 41% -37.3%
15% -36.7% 41% -43.3%
20% -42.9% 41% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses318 / 434
Open positions0
Markets (closed)752 / 621
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day287.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 752 Trades
no open positions (420 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $93 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records