Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

31 0x31b5…4790 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$39 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown74%max

Avg bet$144per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-44.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-18.1%	-25.9%	67%	67%	+2.0%
≤30d	3	-18.1%	-25.9%	67%	67%	+2.0%
≤90d	4	-38.5%	-44.4%	50%	50%	-2.4%
all	4	-38.5%	-44.4%	50%	50%	-2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.4%	50%	-2.4%
10%	-49.7%	25%	-11.7%
15%	-54.6%	0%	-20.2%
20%	-59.0%	0%	-28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$30 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$39

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage50d

Avg bet$144

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown74%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$109	+$23	+21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$40	−$40	-99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 14	$300	+$74	+25%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Apr 30	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	76¢	$60	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	100¢	$133	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	82¢	$109	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	55¢	$129	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	58¢	$202	4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$40	5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Japan	100¢	$374	5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Japan	87¢	$99	5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Japan	76¢	$101	5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Japan	77¢	$101	5d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$20	50d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $60.00 · 11 history records