Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b2…0df2 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$20
other 24% −$2
crypto 4% +$7
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +26.3% +14.2% 100% 100% +14.2%
≤90d 1 +26.3% +14.2% 100% 100% +14.2%
all 25 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage536d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 09 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90ºC and 0.94ºC in Augus Sep 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $4,467 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? Feb 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Jan 24 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 23 $1 $0 -15%
Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 20 $14 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 08 $42 −$14 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 78¢ $23 31d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 210d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 240d
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90ºC and 0.94ºC in Augus BUY No 100¢ $23 302d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 365d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 396d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $25 411d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 415d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 427d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 433d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 433d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,475 438d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,477 438d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 459d
Manchester City wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $4,463 470d
Manchester City wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $4,467 470d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 93¢ $13 486d
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 100¢ $21 497d
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? BUY No 100¢ $21 502d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? SELL No 99¢ $18 508d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? BUY No 99¢ $18 513d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $13 519d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? SELL No 97¢ $15 519d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 521d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 100¢ $13 521d
Will Coinbase list $TRUMP in January? SELL No $0 523d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 523d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $15 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.48 · official $32.48 (match) · 51 history records