Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31b0…69b3
sports · 42 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$1,847 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,179 · open −$616
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,884
Realized+$2,179
Unrealized−$616
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$393
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage35d
Avg bet$640
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,012
7 days+$1,706
14 days+$3,656
30 days+$3,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 44¢ 64¢ $1,000 $1,467 +$467 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 62¢ 88¢ $1,000 $1,416 +$416 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 50¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 48¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage magic 43¢ 0¢ $489 $0 −$489 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 59¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 28¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 29¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 61¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 48¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 40¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 38¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 58¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 37¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 45¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 53¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 36¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Team Falcons 57¢ 0¢ $988 $0 −$988 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 +$579 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $505 +$241 +48%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $510 +$919 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $510 +$976 +191%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $508 +$580 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $506 +$327 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $505 +$232 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $506 +$288 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $507 +$462 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $506 +$327 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $507 +$386 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $507 +$402 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $507 +$386 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $508 +$534 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $508 +$492 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $510 +$879 +172%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $509 +$773 +152%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $506 +$326 +64%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $509 +$762 +150%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $504 +$209 +41%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $497 −$489 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$1,564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $508 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $506 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $508 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $508 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $506 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $505 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $509 16h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $508 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $507 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 34¢ $510 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 35¢ $510 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $509 27h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $509 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $507 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $505 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $511 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $509 29h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $509 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $506 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $511 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,013 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $507 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $505 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $506 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 66¢ $505 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $505 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $510 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $506 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.6% +6.4% 62% 62% -1.0%
≤30d 36 +24.7% +12.8% 64% 64% +5.7%
≤90d 38 +18.2% +6.9% 61% 61% -1.0%
all 38 +18.2% +6.9% 61% 61% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 61% -1.0%
10% -3.3% 61% -10.5%
15% -12.7% 61% -19.1%
20% -21.2% 53% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,884.28 · official $2,884.28 (match) · 75 history records