Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b0…1f1b other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$8
other 29% +$1
crypto 8% −$2
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 0% -8.3%
all 47 -2.1% -11.5% 43% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -8.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage455d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $53 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $48 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $16 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 +$4 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $43 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $47 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $41 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $8 $0 -4%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -32%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $9 $0 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 09 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $9 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $53 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $5 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $42 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $42 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $16 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $52 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $26 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $22 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $44 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $49 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records