Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31af…5c86 weather 844 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+1%) realized +$84 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%457W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$348
7 days+$423
14 days+$277
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$352
crypto 23% −$468
other 0% −$1
sports 0% +$29
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +16.6% +5.5% 67% 19% -2.9%
≤30d 414 +10.7% +0.2% 80% 14% -7.1%
≤90d 719 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 13% -18.0%
all 811 -1.8% -11.2% 56% 19% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 19% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 15% -19.2%
15% -27.4% 14% -27.0%
20% -34.6% 13% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,344
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses457 / 354
Open positions32
Markets (closed)811 / 844
History coverage94d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 27¢ 94¢ $77 $261 +$185 (+241%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $100 $202 +$102 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $48 $64 +$16 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $43 $63 +$20 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $32 $46 +$14 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $36 $45 +$9 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $111 $45 −$66 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $95 $23 −$72 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $36 $19 −$18 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $55 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $173 −$57 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$108 +345%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 −$16 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 16 $53 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $32 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$24 +227%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$129 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$112 +655%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$11 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $39 −$37 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$201 +545%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$41 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $36 −$34 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $181 3m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 48m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 36¢ $48 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,343.57 · official $1,343.58 (match) · 3356 history records