trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -8.6% | -17.3% | 50% | 30% | -16.2% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -16.9% | -24.8% | 45% | 27% | -20.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -16.9% | -24.8% | 45% | 27% | -20.9% |
| all | 23 | -33.4% | -39.8% | 26% | 13% | -29.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.8% | 13% | -29.2% |
| 10% | -45.5% | 4% | -36.0% |
| 15% | -50.8% | 0% | -42.2% |
| 20% | -55.6% | 0% | -47.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $144 | $127 | −$17 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 27 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | Jun 27 | $10 | +$1 | +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 27 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 27 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 27 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Jun 26 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 23 | $11 | −$8 | -70% |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $15 | −$11 | -72% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 20 | $12 | +$3 | +23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | Jun 20 | $11 | −$10 | -95% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 08 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5 | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Hawks | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 05 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-03? | Feb 04 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 03 | $29 | −$19 | -67% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? | Feb 03 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? | Feb 03 | $10 | −$8 | -84% |