Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31af…fda4 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-14%) realized −$36 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$31
sports 4% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 30% -18.1%
≤30d 50 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 30% -18.1%
≤90d 50 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 30% -18.1%
all 50 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 30% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 30% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 24% -25.9%
15% -37.6% 18% -33.1%
20% -43.7% 14% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)50 / 60
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +132%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -82%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +481%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -79%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $41 −$21 -51%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +64%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +303%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.81 · official $43.74 (match) · 117 history records