Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31ac…8b4c sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$304 (+6%) realized +$304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%59W / 36L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$342
14 days+$311
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$64
other 37% +$110
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +12.6% +1.9% 60% 31% -2.5%
≤30d 95 +8.0% -2.3% 62% 24% -4.0%
≤90d 95 +8.0% -2.3% 62% 24% -4.0%
all 95 +8.0% -2.3% 62% 24% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 24% -4.0%
10% -11.6% 11% -13.2%
15% -20.2% 7% -21.6%
20% -28.0% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses59 / 36
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage26d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $200 −$6 -3%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $225 +$50 +22%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $200 −$7 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $201 +$17 +8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $98 −$79 -81%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $49 −$21 -44%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $605 +$104 +17%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $48 −$11 -22%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $195 +$39 +20%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $171 +$51 +30%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $62 +$8 +12%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 −$22 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$155 +654%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $226 −$40 -18%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $117 −$8 -7%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $101 +$1 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $190 +$4 +2%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $97 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $100 +$18 +18%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$6 -62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $91 +$29 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 −$2 -4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $34 −$10 -28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $75 −$3 -4%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 +$31 +61%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $50 −$1 -1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -16%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 −$2 -7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $195 16m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 16m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 30m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $0 33m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $25 33m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $151 55m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $31 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $19 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $1 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $50 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $49 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $236 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $60 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $60 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $42 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $36 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $42 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $218 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $19 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 35¢ $23 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $98 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 37¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 63¢ $24 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 62¢ $25 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $304 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 445 history records