Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x31ac…d2ef other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$5
world 20% +$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 11% +$1
economics 7% +$1
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.0% 75% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 55 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 7% -8.7%
10% -14.0% 5% -17.4%
15% -22.3% 4% -25.4%
20% -29.9% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage435d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +2%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Aug 11 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Aug 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 14 $2 +$6 +261%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 14 $17 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 13 $34 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 11 $4 $0 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $14 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $15 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 91°F or higher on July 10? Jul 09 $1 $0 +31%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $1 +$1 +71%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $2 $0 +8%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $7 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $26 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $33 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $32 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $30 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $27 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $31 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $25 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $11 30d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 86¢ $1 343d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $1 343d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 99¢ $15 343d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $1 343d
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 343d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 99¢ $15 343d
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? SELL No 95¢ $14 343d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.67 · official $29.67 (match) · 236 history records