Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31ab…86cf
other · 203 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$17,723 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,323 · open +$629
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42,259
Realized+$17,323
Unrealized+$629
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses122 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions70
Markets (closed)145 / 203
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,392
Trades / day236.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 70 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,922
7 days+$10,545
14 days+$17,323
30 days+$17,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 89¢ 87¢ $8,784 $8,588 −$196 (-2%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $4,428 $4,445 +$17 (+0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $3,524 $3,528 +$4 (+0%)
Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,369 $3,373 +$4 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,619 $2,662 +$43 (+2%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $2,231 $2,210 −$21 (-1%)
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,943 $1,991 +$48 (+2%)
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,615 $1,631 +$17 (+1%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,368 $1,377 +$9 (+1%)
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,279 $1,310 +$32 (+2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 28¢ 97¢ $289 $1,017 +$728 (+252%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $797 $797 −$1 (-0%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 94¢ 93¢ $722 $717 −$4 (-1%)
Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 99¢ 99¢ $710 $709 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $689 $694 +$5 (+1%)
Over $300M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 99¢ 99¢ $612 $612 +$0 (+0%)
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $504 $507 +$3 (+1%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $414 $413 −$1 (-0%)
Over $15M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 99¢ 99¢ $402 $402 +$1 (+0%)
James Comey in jail by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $387 $389 +$2 (+1%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 25 Gwei before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $353 $352 −$2 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $316 $317 +$1 (+0%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $267 $277 +$10 (+4%)
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $257 $260 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 13 $1,438 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $10,048 +$138 +1%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 12 $1,838 +$2 +0%
Will Ashley St. Clair be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spa Jun 12 $378 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1,335 +$1 +0%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $520 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $8,097 +$8 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $707 +$2 +0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? Jun 12 $33 +$3 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $990 +$9 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $6,212 +$113 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $2,121 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3,700 +$8 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $637 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $3,949 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,436 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $681 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $268 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $15,748 +$37 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,872 +$9 +0%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.75B by June 30? Jun 12 $70 +$12 +17%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $274 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $7 +$2,788 +40542%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,415 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $499 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $469 +$4 +1%
Over $80M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $235 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $5,346 +$58 +1%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $2,140 +$7 +0%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $600 +$6 +1%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$10 -5%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $163 +$1 +0%
Over $500M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 12 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 11 $74 $0 +1%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 11 $34,056 +$537 +2%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $1,191 +$55 +5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $277 +$2 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $517 +$8 +2%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $979 +$21 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,680 +$79 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,431 +$2 +0%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? Jun 10 $1,112 +$39 +4%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 10 $163 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 30% +$4,265
politics 25% +$596
other 23% +$5,527
world 14% +$7,542
crypto 4% +$12
finance 4% +$16
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $48 31m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $191 38m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4,696 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,069 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $74 3h
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 4h
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 94¢ $9 4h
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 93¢ $42 4h
Over $300M committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 100¢ $38 4h
Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 99¢ $134 4h
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL No 100¢ $520 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 5h
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $201 5h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 5h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $355 5h
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 5h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $759 5h
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 6h
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $385 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $949 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $526 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 6h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 41¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 100¢ $999 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +19.4% +8.0% 81% 4% -5.5%
≤30d 145 +30.4% +18.0% 84% 8% -4.0%
≤90d 145 +30.4% +18.0% 84% 8% -4.0%
all 145 +30.4% +18.0% 84% 8% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover236.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.0% 8% -4.0%
10% +6.7% 7% -13.2%
15% ← realistic here -3.6% 6% -21.6%
20% -13.1% 5% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,259.45 · official $42,259.45 (match) · 3500 history records