Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31aa…b7f2 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-5%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%176W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$16
other 36% +$10
politics 4% −$21
crypto 3% −$8
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -35.5%
≤30d 91 -19.9% -27.5% 41% 41% -23.6%
≤90d 229 -11.2% -19.6% 47% 47% -20.8%
all 359 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 48% -14.4%
10% -23.0% 42% -22.5%
15% -30.4% 34% -30.0%
20% -37.2% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses176 / 183
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)359 / 361
History coverage246d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -71%
Pavel Šulc: 2+ shots Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -80%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 $0 -23%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +154%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -64%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 04 $1 $0 +23%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 $0 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +60%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +22%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 $0 +46%
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 0.5 May 31 $1 $0 +16%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 41m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $1 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 34¢ $1 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $1 4h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $2 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $0 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 37h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $0 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $1 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 71¢ $1 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $0 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 733 history records