Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31aa…d4e1 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$16
14 days−$0
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$123
sports 47% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.2% +17.8% 30% 30% +16.8%
≤30d 29 +18.2% +7.0% 38% 34% +21.0%
≤90d 47 +0.9% -8.7% 32% 30% -9.3%
all 110 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 31% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 31% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 30% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 29% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 29% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 75
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage176d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$23 +442%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +242%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +157%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -45%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 02 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $19 −$14 -76%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 +$15 +306%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $4 +$10 +257%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 27h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 41h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 7d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 10d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 10d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.84 · official $14.84 (match) · 177 history records