Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a7…5910 crypto 29 markets active 6d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-27%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -42.9% -48.4% 27% 18% -35.8%
≤30d 11 -42.9% -48.4% 27% 18% -35.8%
≤90d 29 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 45% -36.6%
all 29 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 45% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 45% -36.6%
10% -29.5% 38% -42.6%
15% -36.3% 38% -48.2%
20% -42.5% 24% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage76d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records