Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
31 0x31a5…8ed9 world 4 markets active 164d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$409,882 (+1208%) realized +$409,882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +791% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +629% what you keep after slip
Net edge+629%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$8,484per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$405,273
world 4% +$4,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+705.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +790.7% +705.9% 100% 100% +1083.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +705.9% 100% +1083.3%
10% ← realistic here +628.8% 100% +970.1%
15% +558.4% 100% +866.7%
20% +493.8% 100% +771.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +791% · $-wt +1208% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102,470 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$409,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8,484
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $250 +$2,465 +986%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $1,000 +$2,143 +214%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $146 +$1,052 +720%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $32,538 +$404,221 +1242%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2,715 164d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3,143 164d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7,215 165d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7,000 165d
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 165d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6,000 165d
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 165d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6,000 165d
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 166d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5,000 166d
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 166d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,000 166d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $85 168d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,238 168d
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $96 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records