Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a5…9f4c world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$4
politics 13% $0
other 10% −$1
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 19 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 0% -9.0%
all 44 -1.1% -10.6% 32% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage267d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $41 +$4 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $92 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $2 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $3 $0 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 88¢ $48 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $45 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $13 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $17 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $1 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $48 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $49 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $48 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $49 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $48 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records