Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
31 0x31a4…dd86 sports 284 markets active 6d ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30,171 (+79%) realized +$30,176 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate84%233W / 44L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$12,645
world 9% +$23
other 1% −$327
weather 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$3
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +15.7% +4.7% 92% 22% -2.1%
≤30d 48 +48.4% +34.2% 83% 27% +86.4%
≤90d 177 +67.0% +51.1% 82% 42% +31.2%
all 277 +62.6% +47.1% 84% 34% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.1% 34% +16.3%
10% ← realistic here +33.0% 24% +5.2%
15% +20.2% 19% -5.0%
20% +8.4% 18% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$25 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.21 per $1 lost it wins $13.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$30,176
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses233 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions22
Markets (closed)277 / 284
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Landry Shamet record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Miles McBride record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luke Kornet record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jose Alvarado record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Harrison Barnes record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA F Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 11 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 +$4 +340%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $4 +$1 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aterion Esports vs Team Spirit Academy White Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: Alter Ego vs Xipto Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $6 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Endless Journey (BO3) - Exort Series Main S May 31 $181 +$19 +11%
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 1 Winner May 30 $178 +$4,922 +2758%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 26 $11 +$4 +35%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $2 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team - Game 2 Winner May 20 $2,408 +$49 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 19 $5 +$5 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $209 −$202 -97%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup C May 18 $233 +$30 +13%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Trace Esports - Map 2 Winner May 18 $132 +$8 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 93¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 6d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 38¢ $2 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 65¢ $3 6d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 87¢ $4 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 77¢ $4 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.15 · official $29.46 (match) · 3500 history records