Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a2…cfcd crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%61W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$113
14 days−$66
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -37.6% -43.5% 37% 26% -30.3%
≤30d 49 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 39% -16.2%
≤90d 110 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 46% -18.9%
all 110 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 46% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 46% -18.9%
10% -26.4% 35% -26.7%
15% -33.5% 16% -33.8%
20% -40.0% 7% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses61 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage60d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$33 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $13 +$68 +503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records