Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a0…446f politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$7
other 27% −$4
world 17% −$1
culture 10% −$1
economics 8% −$1
tech 8% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$851) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage81d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $855 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $814 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $772 −$3 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $812 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Mar 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 19m
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,010 27m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 33m
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 42m
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $973 50m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $683 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $276 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $961 1h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close SELL No 100¢ $29 30h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $12 31h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 31h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $645 31h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close BUY No 100¢ $29 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 31h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 34h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $915 34h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $88 26d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $71 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $18 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $873 29d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $45 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.26 · official $78.26 (match) · 93 history records