Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31a0…85a8
sports · 30 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$7,784 +102%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,784 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$130
Realized+$7,784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage82d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$21
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 62¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 47¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Cleveland Guardians 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 30¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Under 44¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 29¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Washington Nationals 25¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Washington Nationals 72¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $2 +$4 +186%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 05 $3 +$6 +223%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 03 $1 +$5 +525%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $2 +$4 +186%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 03 $7 +$2 +30%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $21 +$7 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $2 +$4 +194%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 28 $4 +$6 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $6 +$6 +100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) May 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 25 $4,979 +$5,394 +108%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 24 $2,394 +$2,394 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$7,780
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $13 51m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 44¢ $3 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 22¢ $1 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 7d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 31¢ $3 8d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $3 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 11d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 14d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 25¢ $2 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 17d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 18d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 19d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 26¢ $1 23d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $3 24d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $21 25d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $5 26d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $19 26d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 77¢ $7 27d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 28d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $2 29d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 16¢ $1 30d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 31d
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,526 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.0% +24.8% 67% 67% +35.7%
≤30d 22 +21.4% +9.8% 45% 45% -12.9%
≤90d 24 +28.3% +16.1% 50% 50% +84.7%
all 24 +28.3% +16.1% 50% 50% +84.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.1% 50% +84.7%
10% +5.0% 50% +67.0%
15% -5.2% 42% +50.9%
20% -14.5% 38% +36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.91 · official $129.91 (match) · 77 history records