Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31a0…deed crypto 830 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,382 (-3%) realized −$1,378 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%413W / 414L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$376
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,230
sports 1% +$69
other 0% −$6
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.8% -13.9% 61% 28% -2.5%
≤30d 18 -4.8% -13.9% 61% 28% -2.5%
≤90d 420 -9.2% -17.8% 46% 40% -15.0%
all 827 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 41% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 41% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 35% -20.3%
15% -31.7% 30% -28.0%
20% -38.4% 26% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses413 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)827 / 830
History coverage105d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 827 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $119 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $120 +$78 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $319 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $127 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $137 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $117 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $66 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $672 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $172 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $447 +$116 +26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $257 +$213 +83%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $148 −$144 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 20 $266 −$254 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 20 $240 −$232 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 20 $120 −$116 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 20 $60 −$49 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 20 $60 +$56 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 19 $58 −$33 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 19 $309 −$150 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 19 $400 −$385 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 19 $200 −$175 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 19 $114 −$100 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 19 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 19 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 19 $200 +$180 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 19 $90 −$79 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 19 $40 −$34 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 19 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 19 $14 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $12 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 19 $26 +$20 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 19 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 19 $12 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 19 $11 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 19 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 19 $29 +$24 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 19 $13 −$11 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 3m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $127 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $119 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $15 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $238 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $95 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $187 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.11 · official $46.11 (match) · 3211 history records