Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3199…f9dd crypto 1077 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$456 (+3%) realized +$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%652W / 425L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$190
14 days+$386
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$398
sports 5% −$44
tech 0% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 699 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 28% -7.8%
≤30d 930 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 28% -7.0%
≤90d 1077 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 30% -7.2%
all 1077 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 30% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 30% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 15% -16.1%
15% -26.3% 8% -24.2%
20% -33.5% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses652 / 425
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1077 / 1077
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1077 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $109 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $221 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $205 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records