Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3198…8b1f crypto 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$294 (-7%) realized −$130 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$264
14 days+$143
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$634
sports 36% −$109
other 13% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.0% +1.3% 54% 46% +30.8%
≤30d 45 +6.3% -3.8% 38% 36% +4.2%
≤90d 62 -13.3% -21.6% 32% 31% -15.3%
all 149 -13.3% -21.5% 34% 33% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 33% -18.8%
10% -29.1% 31% -26.6%
15% -35.9% 30% -33.7%
20% -42.2% 28% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 98
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage148d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 50¢ 6¢ $189 $25 −$164 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $165 +$107 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 +$92 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $139 +$66 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$32 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$22 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$70 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$51 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$23 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$32 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$31 -95%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $64 −$62 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$53 +649%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $72 +$36 +50%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $32 +$52 +162%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $45 −$44 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $45 −$44 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $32 +$52 +164%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 21 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $26 +$25 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 7¢ $8 0m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $183 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $165 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $254 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $162 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $139 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 324 history records