Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3192…eda4 world 24 markets active 12h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3
other 20% +$19
politics 12% +$1
economics 3% $0
sports 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -13.2% -21.4% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 8 -13.2% -21.4% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 24 +12.8% +2.1% 38% 8% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 8% -7.1%
10% -7.7% 4% -16.0%
15% -16.6% 4% -24.1%
20% -24.8% 4% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$3 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 23 $5 +$20 +427%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 16 $1 $0 +14%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 07 $14 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $35 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $23 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $0 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records