Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3190…75c9 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
sports 19% −$14
politics 16% $0
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 28 -0.5% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 41 -0.4% -9.9% 37% 0% -9.6%
all 42 -2.8% -12.0% 36% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage487d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $57 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $129 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $81 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $48 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $42 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $59 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $527 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $219 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $218 $0 +0%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Mar 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $8 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $34 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $17 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $25 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $42 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $22 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $5 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $12 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $19 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $26 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records