Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
31 0x318d…e94c sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$541 (-2%) realized −$541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$650
7 days−$467
14 days−$467
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,335
other 11% −$2,802
culture 6% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +51.3% +36.9% 62% 60% -11.5%
≤30d 42 +51.3% +36.9% 62% 60% -11.5%
≤90d 42 +51.3% +36.9% 62% 60% -11.5%
all 43 +50.0% +35.7% 60% 58% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.7% 58% -11.5%
10% +22.7% 53% -20.0%
15% +10.9% 28% -27.7%
20% +0.0% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$374 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage95d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $176 +$55 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $623 −$200 -32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $404 +$211 +52%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $260 +$82 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $353 +$91 +26%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,015 +$799 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $278 +$75 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $467 −$459 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $777 −$127 -16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $252 −$7 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$120 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $503 +$126 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $504 +$167 +33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $258 −$22 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $849 +$218 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 +$97 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,008 +$445 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,346 −$204 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,108 +$280 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $253 +$135 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $505 +$268 +53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $402 +$93 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $252 +$101 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $403 +$110 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $503 +$100 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $255 +$360 +141%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $950 −$940 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,999 −$1,048 -52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $115 −$8 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 +$255 +249%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,003 +$103 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $506 −$28 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,008 +$330 +33%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,005 +$213 +21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,650 +$375 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,012 +$637 +63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,789 −$2,749 -99%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1,496 −$41 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $230 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $0 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $319 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $614 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $404 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $117 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $342 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $260 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $444 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $1,814 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $353 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $353 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $278 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $1,015 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $263 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $0 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $650 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $388 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $388 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 68¢ $240 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 70¢ $252 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records