Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x318c…8cdb crypto 1374 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-2%) realized −$46 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate76%1042W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$41
14 days−$49
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$24
other 7% −$41
sports 0% −$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 6% -16.1%
≤30d 842 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 7% -13.4%
≤90d 1273 -6.6% -15.5% 75% 12% -15.2%
all 1370 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 16% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 16% -12.3%
10% -21.0% 8% -20.7%
15% -28.7% 5% -28.4%
20% -35.7% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1042 / 328
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1370 / 1374
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$17 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $31.83 (match) · 2949 history records