Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3188…14da
crypto · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$21 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 5 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 24 $1 +$9 +685%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 23 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$19
culture 20% −$2
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 40% -20.6%
≤30d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 31% -23.6%
≤90d 45 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 31% -23.6%
all 45 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 31% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 31% -23.6%
10% -14.0% 24% -30.9%
15% -22.3% 24% -37.6%
20% -29.9% 20% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 155 history records