Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3187…70ce crypto 1429 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,322 (-7%) realized −$1,322 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%994W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$643
14 days−$643
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$217
sports 6% −$581
other 5% −$768
world 0% +$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -3.6% -12.7% 90% 10% -16.7%
≤30d 1063 -9.4% -18.0% 72% 29% -16.7%
≤90d 1429 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 30% -16.7%
all 1429 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 30% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 30% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 17% -24.7%
15% -30.3% 12% -31.9%
20% -37.2% 8% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses994 / 435
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1429 / 1429
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1429 Trades
no open positions (196 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$100 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $61 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $48 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records