Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3186…2a53
sports · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,131 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,159 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$471
Realized−$2,159
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage8d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,412
7 days−$2,469
14 days−$2,159
30 days−$2,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Andrea Guerrieri 44¢ 48¢ $429 $464 +$34 (+8%)
Romano vs. Jones: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 68¢ 34¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Over 86¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers No 39¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Detroit Tigers 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 10¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Yuta Shimizu 84¢ 0¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 41¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Golden Knights 43¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Under 77¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 114.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $572 $0 −$572 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Ruiz vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins No 80¢ 0¢ $615 $0 −$615 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Luka Mikrut vs. Marvin Moeller: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Under 75¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 50¢ 0¢ $430 $0 −$430 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $149 −$146 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 11 $619 −$615 -99%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $434 −$33 -8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $437 −$430 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $50 +$30 +60%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. D Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 10 $388 −$288 -74%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $30 +$33 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $52 +$55 +105%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $28 +$14 +48%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $246 −$241 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $15 +$20 +138%
Spread: Golden Knights (-4.5) Jun 10 $28 +$1 +5%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $433 +$133 +31%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 08 $47 −$47 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $11 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $35 +$30 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 08 $580 −$572 -99%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $28 +$3 +10%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $13 −$12 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $260 −$256 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $44 −$43 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $32 +$7 +23%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Marko Topo Jun 07 $9 −$8 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $26 −$26 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 07 $24 +$52 +216%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 07 $26 +$6 +23%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $40 −$3 -9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $52 +$65 +124%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $26 +$6 +21%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $35 +$11 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $106 +$23 +21%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 07 $74 +$96 +131%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $127 −$125 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $6 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 07 $36 −$5 -15%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $26 +$114 +442%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $2 $0 -19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$2,131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 44¢ $437 9m
Romano vs. Jones: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 68¢ $14 54m
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 1h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 41¢ $149 4h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 78¢ $188 23h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 81¢ $431 24h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko SELL Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 55¢ $401 24h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 58¢ $434 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $437 40h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 24¢ $16 41h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. D BUY Yes 4¢ $3 41h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan BUY No 62¢ $50 41h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Yes 67¢ $340 42h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY No 47¢ $48 42h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $30 43h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $52 43h
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 67¢ $28 46h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 83¢ $16 47h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 79¢ $16 47h
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Emerson Jones 38¢ $246 2d
Maneiro vs. Tomljanovic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 2d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY James McCabe 41¢ $15 2d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto BUY Juan Estevez 76¢ $433 2d
Spread: Golden Knights (-4.5) BUY Hurricanes 95¢ $28 2d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 18¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 BUY Under 13¢ $4 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 33¢ $18 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $47 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 52¢ $10 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.6% -12.7% 46% 42% -48.0%
≤30d 84 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 48% -39.7%
≤90d 84 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 48% -39.7%
all 84 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 48% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 48% -39.7%
10% -13.2% 42% -45.5%
15% -21.6% 35% -50.8%
20% -29.3% 31% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.26 · official $470.88 (match) · 153 history records