Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3185…9575 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate66%166W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$45
14 days−$124
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$167
other 5% +$48
crypto 0% −$16
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.8% -15.7% 74% 16% -6.6%
≤30d 82 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 250 +5.4% -4.6% 66% 32% -10.0%
all 250 +5.4% -4.6% 66% 32% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 32% -10.0%
10% -13.7% 15% -18.6%
15% -22.1% 11% -26.5%
20% -29.7% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses166 / 84
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage83d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $45 −$11 -25%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $94 −$33 -35%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$18 +22%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $94 +$6 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $133 +$9 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $94 +$6 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $94 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $92 −$16 -17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $63 +$11 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $48 +$19 +41%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $85 +$8 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $38 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $94 +$5 +6%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $52 +$19 +35%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $101 −$79 -78%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $92 −$86 -94%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $42 +$7 +16%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $144 −$30 -21%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $139 +$17 +12%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $78 +$21 +27%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $85 −$40 -47%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $43 +$7 +16%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $92 −$34 -36%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $141 +$1 +1%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $35 −$34 -98%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $36 +$8 +22%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $28 +$5 +16%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $142 +$6 +4%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $86 +$13 +15%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Durham May 31 $90 +$9 +10%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $94 +$5 +5%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $142 −$16 -12%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $93 +$6 +6%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $23 +$3 +15%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda May 30 $154 −$21 -14%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Leicestershire May 29 $84 +$15 +18%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $94 +$4 +4%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $84 +$14 +17%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $84 +$15 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 68¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $45 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $92 5h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 62¢ $61 12h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 94¢ $94 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 28h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $100 28h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $94 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 98¢ $98 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 93¢ $20 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 93¢ $0 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 93¢ $17 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 93¢ $9 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 93¢ $46 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 87¢ $43 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 79¢ $40 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 95¢ $95 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi SELL Rwanda 100¢ $34 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi SELL Rwanda 99¢ $66 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi BUY Rwanda 94¢ $94 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL No 77¢ $76 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $92 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 98¢ $74 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 857 history records