Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

31 0x3183…f2ca other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-51.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-46.1%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-4.2%
≤30d	6	-46.1%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-4.2%
≤90d	6	-46.1%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-4.2%
all	6	-46.1%	-51.2%	33%	33%	-4.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.2%	33%	-4.2%
10%	-55.9%	17%	-13.3%
15%	-60.2%	17%	-21.7%
20%	-64.1%	17%	-29.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.14 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$17	+$19	+109%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$25	1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$17	17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	36h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	57¢	$15	42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.10 · official $36.10 (match) · 13 history records