Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3183…c74e weather 453 markets active 0h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%357W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$39
14 days−$9
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$26
world 0% −$26
politics 0% −$9
culture 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
other 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 3% -7.7%
≤30d 131 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 158 -5.3% -14.3% 91% 6% -8.8%
all 443 -4.3% -13.4% 81% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 15% -9.6%
10% -21.7% 6% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses357 / 86
Open positions10
Markets (closed)443 / 453
History coverage326d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? No 98¢ 96¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 23? Jun 23 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $191 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $54 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 21 $46 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 2 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $71 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $27 7m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $20 10m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $8 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $26 28m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $66 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $71 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $47 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $26 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $18 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $47 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $98 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $194 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 95¢ $71 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $71 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $98 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $93 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.16 · official $367.16 (match) · 1290 history records