Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3181…32a0 crypto 1038 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$423 (-3%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%652W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$140
14 days−$279
30 days−$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 46% -19.9%
≤30d 999 -4.0% -13.2% 62% 55% -14.9%
≤90d 1038 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 54% -13.1%
all 1038 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 54% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 54% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -21.4%
15% -28.7% 35% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses652 / 386
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1038
History coverage31d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions (319 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 2181 history records