Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x317c…1be4 crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate84%69W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +22.0% +10.4% 89% 6% -9.4%
≤30d 82 +11.2% +0.6% 84% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 82 +11.2% +0.6% 84% 5% -9.5%
all 82 +11.2% +0.6% 84% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 5% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -17.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -25.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses69 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage15d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $762 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $566 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $457 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $969 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $162 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $54 −$6 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $234 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $63 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $422 −$5 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $459 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $466 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $641 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $404 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $627 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$7 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $332 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $339 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $68 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $4 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $72 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $72 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $72 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $72 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $27 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 93¢ $18 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $18 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $18 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.80 · official $183.00 (match) · 958 history records