Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x317b…bbbd world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
other 35% −$1
politics 10% +$17
sports 4% +$8
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 49 +12.2% +1.5% 47% 4% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 4% -7.5%
10% -8.2% 4% -16.3%
15% -17.1% 4% -24.4%
20% -25.2% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage488d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $57 −$2 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $66 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $34 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $26 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $36 $0 -1%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Dec 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $3 +$17 +569%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
2025 May hottest on record? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Lee Jae-myung out as Democratic Party presidential candidate? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $17 $0 -2%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
NFT Kid vs. White Boy Summer Mar 04 $8 +$8 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 55m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $33 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $35 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $35 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $35 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $35 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $7 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 153 history records